Vertical farming has evolved from a futuristic experiment to a credible pillar of modern agriculture. Yet, despite technology, the industry finds itself at a crossroads: some now doubt its future due to stalled momentum and failed ventures. But others, like Reinier Donkersloot, believe it’s just getting started.
We asked Reinier about trends and his vision for the future of vertical farming. With years of experience in vertical farming, strategy, and technology, Reinier sees 3 key trends that will shape the industry in the years ahead. It’s no longer about proving the concept – it’s about smart scaling.
Reinier Donkersloot is a seasoned expert in vertical farming and controlled environment agriculture (CEA), with over 10 years of experience in horticultural technology and business development. He currently serves as Business Development Manager at Airlux Technologies.
1. From innovation to necessity
For years, vertical farming was marketed as a clean, local, and sustainable alternative – leafy greens produced near the city, free from pesticides and transportation miles. But recent geopolitical disruptions, supply chain volatility, and climate stress have shifted the narrative. Vertical farming is no longer just a feel-good innovation – it’s becoming a strategic safeguard for countries to grow more food locally and reliably.
“We’re solving a supply chain risk by growing locally, indoors. This is no longer a gimmick – it’s a necessity.”
Events like the temporary closure of the Suez Canal or prolonged droughts have revealed the fragility of global food logistics. Controlled environment agriculture offers a stable, decentralized alternative. And as Donkersloot notes, beside its own autonomous role it will also increasingly be complementary to greenhouse operations and opens the door for hybrid models.
Besides the real indoor vertical farms that are developed across the globe, offering full potential of indoor farming controlling all growing parameters, new hybrid systems are taking their place in the current CEA landscape as well. These alternatives, such as Dutch Lion, are implementing vertical cultivation systems in greenhouses. While capturing the natural sunlight energy consumption is being reduced.
Another important opportunity lies in seedling propagation. Starting young plants – such as tomatoes or peppers – in a vertical farm and then transferring them to greenhouses ensures better quality, resilience, and yield. This hybrid approach unlocks broader market potential far beyond herbs and lettuce scaling the potential of vertical farming applications.
Over the years a lot of valuable data is collected, which is a continuous project. This knowledge and the focus to a broader view on crops to grow in a vertical farm is increasing interest and more parties will enter the market learning from the mistakes made by the early adopters.
2. Focus on the numbers: CapEx, OpEx and Energy
The most common misconception? That vertical farming is a technology-first business. It’s not. According to Donkersloot, successful farms begin not with sensors or lighting specs, but with a clear business case.
“You build a farm for the plant. Technology is just a tool – not the purpose.”
This reverse-engineering philosophy turns the old way around: define the outcomes needed upfront (volume, quality, cost), and architect the farm accordingly.
Here’s what that means in practice:
- CapEx (startup investment) has decreased from €2,500-3,000 per m² to around €1,500-1,800. But in order to achieve real scalability, the ambition has to be under €1,000 per m². Businesses like Airlux Technologies are making this evolution a reality through modular climate control and lighting systems.
- OpEx (operating costs) remain dominated by energy – often 30-40% of total expenditure. The goal is to reduce this to 20-25%, using smarter lighting schedules, dynamic climate control, and cost-driven energy planning. It’s not just about how much energy you use, but when you use it.
Labor costs are also under pressure. Even in regions with low wages, automation is key for consistency and scalability. Donkersloot: “The industry is moving toward a new benchmark: one employee per 1,000 m². This shift will define the next generation of profitable farms.”
3. Smarter control through AI and data
Vertical farming’s real revolution won’t come from new hardware – it will come from software. Smart data, machine learning, and AI will transform how we understand and control the growing environment.
“True autonomy starts when we understand the plant. That means data – and lots of it.”
Some farms are already experimenting with AI that dynamically adjusts growing conditions based on energy prices, supply forecasts, and even retail demand. Think about reduced lighting during midweek and boosted lightning over the weekend, when power is cheaper. Or plant cycles that are optimized around incoming volumes of sales.
But to do that well, deep plant knowledge is needed. Donkersloot: “Today’s vertical farms lack robust plant intelligence models. Unlike machines, plants respond to dozens of variables- light spectrum, humidity, CO₂, genetics and their behaviour is not yet fully predictable. Building accurate datasets and biological models is essential for true AI-driven and confident farming.”
Mastering this opens the door to totally autonomous systems wherein robots plant, care for, and harvest, all driven by real-time feedback from sensors and vision systems.
From farm to food platform
The most successful vertical farms of the future will not just grow plants -they will operate as platforms for food production, capable of scaling across geographies and categories. But that requires standardization.
“Vertical farmers are still farmers. We’re not just producers. Our strength lies in growing strong, healthy plants.”
Donkersloot sees enormous potential in high-tech regions like northern Europe, where limited sunlight and land availability make vertical farming attractive. He also highlights Saudi Arabia as a growth market, with entirely new cities being built – cities that will need food systems from day one.
Standardization also means knowing what not to do. Many farms fall into the trap of overcomplicating operations: handling packaging, logistics, or white-label retail. Donkersloot argues that farms should focus on what they do best: growing plants.
Three golden rules for future-ready farms
Based on over a decade of experience, Donkersloot offers three pieces of advice for anyone building or scaling a vertical farm:
- Start with the outcome. Know your goals before picking tech: don’t build and hope.
- Understand your costs. Make the business case works – both CapEx and OpEx.
- Invest in plant knowledge. Data and AI are useful, but only if you know what the plant needs.
What’s next?
Vertical farming is not a silver bullet, but it is a powerful tool. With the right design philosophy, integrated technology, and a clear market focus, it can become a vital component of the global food system. What’s needed now is clarity, not complexity. Partnership, not isolation. Plant focus, not tech obsession.
The farms of tomorrow will be smarter, leaner, and more responsive. And for those willing to think differently, scale carefully, and grow with precision, the vertical future looks bright.
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